The trends in maize and wheat production in the Republic of Serbia

Abstract

The total area under cereals during 2018 remained at a long-term stable level of about 1.7 million hectares. Maize and wheat are the most important crops grown in the Republic of Serbia. In the structure of harvested areas under cereals, maize dominates (53%), followed by wheat (38%). The objective of this paper was to determine if there was a recognisable trend line for the production of these crops in the 2007-2018 period. The yield data (Area harvested (ha), Production (tonnes), Production (t/ha)) were collected from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. Calculations of relevant and valid trends using central tendency measures, dispersion measures, relative ratios and percentage growth were used for statistical data processing. During the observation period, the average annual growth in maize yield was 6.38%, while the average annual growth in wheat yield was slightly lower, 2.00%. However, it is not possible to create an appropriate trend line for any of the variables in order to predict a future time period, since the coefficient of determination is low.

Ukupna poljoprivredna površina pod strnim žitima u 2018. godini nije puno varirala u odnosu na prethodne godine i iznosila je oko 1.7 miliona hektara. Kukuruz i pšenica predstavljaju najznačajnije biljne kulture koje se gaje u Republici Srbiji. U strukturi požnjevenih površina pod žitaricama kukuruz je dominirao sa čak 53% i bio je praćen od strane pšenice sa 38%. Cilj ovog rada bio je utvrditi postoji li prepoznatljiva linija trenda proizvodnje ovih kultura za period od 2007. do 2018. godine. Podaci o prinosu (požnjevena površina (ha), proizvodnja (u tonama), prinos (t/ha)) prikupljeni su od Republičkog zavoda za statistiku. Za statističku obradu podataka korišćeni su proračuni relevantnih i validnih kretanja primenom mera centralne tendencije, mera disperzije, relativnih pokazatelja i procentualnog rasta. Prosečni godišnji rast prinosa kukuruza u posmatranom periodu iznosi 6,38%, dok je za pšenicu prosečan godišnji rast u posmatranom periodu nešto manji i iznosi 2,00%. Međutim, ni za jednu od promenljivih nije moguće napraviti odgovarajuću liniju trenda, u cilju predviđanja za budući vremenski period, jer je koeficijent determinacije mali.