The Response of Spring Barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) to Climate Change in Northern Serbia

Abstract

The present study assessed the effect of projected climate change on the sowing time, onset, and duration of flowering, the duration of the growing season, and the grain yield of spring barley in Northern Serbia. An AquaCrop simulation covered two climate model integration periods (2001-2030 and 2071-2100) using a dual-step approach (with and without irrigation). After considering the effect of climate change on barley production, the economic benefit of future supplemental irrigation was assessed. The model was calibrated and validated using observed field data (2006-2014), and the simulation's outcomes for future scenarios were compared to those of the baseline period (1971-2000) that was used for the expected climate analysis. The results showed that the projected features of barley production for the 2001-2030 period did not differ much from current practice in this region. On the contrary, for the 2071-2100 period, barley was expected to be sown earlier, to prolong its vegetation, and to shorten flowering's duration. Nevertheless, its yield was expected to remain stable. An economic feasibility assessment of irrigation in the future indicated a negative income, which is why spring barley will most likely remain rain-fed under future conditions.