Verification of model for forecasting Fusarium head blight

Abstract

The paper presents the results of a three-year observation of Fusarium head blight (FHB) of small grains using two models: risk assessment from Pessl instruments disease model and the risk of appearance of FHB developed at Penn State University. Development of FHB was assessed on the wheat varieties Pobeda and NS40S which differ in earliness, awning and the level of resistance. Agricultural parameters were monitored at the locality of Rimski Šančevi in trials testing: sowing, the level of mineral nutrition and sowing density of eight wheat varieties, one spelt variety and one triticale variety. Calibration of models was carried out in 16 localities in Serbia, during 2008, 2009, 2010 and 2011. For each locality GPS coordinates were taken, growth stage were determined, preceding crop and tillage system were denoted. Model calibration was performed in the following locations: Rimski Šančevi (Novi Sad), Sremska Mitrovica, Zrenjanin, Pančevo, Sombor, Subotica, Vršac, Valjevo, Požarevac, Kragujevac, Niš, Pirot, Leskovac, Zaječar and Negotin. According to flowering date it is possible for each variety to assess the risk and level of risk at a given point of view. The combination of the two models proved to be very reliable in predicting the occurrence of FHB of wheat.

U radu su izneti rezultati praćenja fuzarioze klasa na pšenici primenom dva modela: procena rizika putem Pessl instruments modela bolesti i stepen rizika pojave fuzariuma klasa koji je razvijen na Penn State University. Razvoj fuzarioze klasa praćen je na sortama Pobeda i NS40S koje su različite po ranostasnosti, osjatosti i stepenu otpornosti. Agrotehnički parametri praćeni su u lokalitetu Rimski Šančevi u ogledima u kojima se ispituje: rok setve, nivo mineralne ishrane, gustina setve kod osam sorti ozime pšenice, jedne sorte tipa spelta pšenice i jedne sorte tritikalea. Kalibracija modela vršena je u 16 lokaliteta na teritoriji Srbije, tokom 2008, 2009, 2010. i 2011. godine. Za svaki lokalitet obeležene su GPS koordinate, određena je fenofaza useva, utvrđeni predusev i sistem obrade zemljišta. Kalibracija modela vršena je u sledećim lokalitetima: Rimski Šančevi (Novi Sad), Sremska Mitrovica, Zrenjanin, Kikinda, Pančevo, Sombor, Subotica, Vršac, Valjevo, Požarevac, Kragujevac, Niš, Pirot, Leskovac, Zaječar i Negotin. Prema datumu cvetanja moguće je za svaku sortu izvršiti procenu rizika i stepen rizika u datom trenutku posmatranja. Kombinacija dva modela pokazala se kao veoma pouzdana u predviđanju pojave fuzarioze klasa pšenice.