TY  - JOUR
AU  - Nendel, Claas
AU  - Reckling, Moritz
AU  - Debaeke, Philippe
AU  - Schulz, Susanne
AU  - Berg-Mohnicke, Michael
AU  - Constantin, Julie
AU  - Fronzek, Stefan
AU  - Hoffmann, Munir
AU  - Jakšić, Snežana
AU  - Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian
AU  - Klimek-Kopyra, Agnieszka
AU  - Raynal, Hélène
AU  - Schoving, Céline
AU  - Stella, Tommaso
AU  - Battisti, Rafael
PY  - 2022
UR  - http://fiver.ifvcns.rs/handle/123456789/3293
AB  - The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its  protein  demands.  Individual  Member  States  have  been  quick  to  declare  self- sufficiency targets for plant- based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean pro-duction in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.
PB  - John Wiley & Sons
T2  - Global Change Biology
T1  - Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe
EP  - 1358
SP  - 1340
DO  - 10.1111/gcb.16562
ER  - 

@article{
author = "Nendel, Claas and Reckling, Moritz and Debaeke, Philippe and Schulz, Susanne and Berg-Mohnicke, Michael and Constantin, Julie and Fronzek, Stefan and Hoffmann, Munir and Jakšić, Snežana and Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian and Klimek-Kopyra, Agnieszka and Raynal, Hélène and Schoving, Céline and Stella, Tommaso and Battisti, Rafael",
year = "2022",
abstract = "The European Union is highly dependent on soybean imports from overseas to meet its  protein  demands.  Individual  Member  States  have  been  quick  to  declare  self- sufficiency targets for plant- based proteins, but detailed strategies are still lacking. Rising global temperatures have painted an image of a bright future for soybean pro-duction in Europe, but emerging climatic risks such as drought have so far not been included in any of those outlooks. Here, we present simulations of future soybean production and the most prominent risk factors across Europe using an ensemble of climate and soybean growth models. Projections suggest a substantial increase in potential soybean production area and productivity in Central Europe, while southern European production would become increasingly dependent on supplementary irrigation. Average productivity would rise by 8.3% (RCP 4.5) to 8.7% (RCP 8.5) as a result of improved growing conditions (plant physiology benefiting from rising temperature and CO2 levels) and farmers adapting to them by using cultivars with longer phenological cycles. Suitable production area would rise by 31.4% (RCP 4.5) to 37.7% (RCP 8.5) by the mid-century, contributing considerably more than productivity increase to the production potential for closing the protein gap in Europe. While wet conditions at harvest and incidental cold spells are the current key challenges for extending soybean production, the models and climate data analysis anticipate that drought and heat will become the dominant limitations in the future. Breeding for heat-tolerant and water-efficient genotypes is needed to further improve soybean adaptation to changing climatic conditions.",
publisher = "John Wiley & Sons",
journal = "Global Change Biology",
title = "Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe",
pages = "1358-1340",
doi = "10.1111/gcb.16562"
}

Nendel, C., Reckling, M., Debaeke, P., Schulz, S., Berg-Mohnicke, M., Constantin, J., Fronzek, S., Hoffmann, M., Jakšić, S., Kersebaum, K., Klimek-Kopyra, A., Raynal, H., Schoving, C., Stella, T.,& Battisti, R.. (2022). Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe. in Global Change Biology
John Wiley & Sons., 1340-1358.
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16562

Nendel C, Reckling M, Debaeke P, Schulz S, Berg-Mohnicke M, Constantin J, Fronzek S, Hoffmann M, Jakšić S, Kersebaum K, Klimek-Kopyra A, Raynal H, Schoving C, Stella T, Battisti R. Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe. in Global Change Biology. 2022;:1340-1358.
doi:10.1111/gcb.16562 .

Nendel, Claas, Reckling, Moritz, Debaeke, Philippe, Schulz, Susanne, Berg-Mohnicke, Michael, Constantin, Julie, Fronzek, Stefan, Hoffmann, Munir, Jakšić, Snežana, Kersebaum, Kurt-Christian, Klimek-Kopyra, Agnieszka, Raynal, Hélène, Schoving, Céline, Stella, Tommaso, Battisti, Rafael, "Future area expansion outweighs increasing drought risk for soybean in Europe" in Global Change Biology (2022):1340-1358,
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16562 . .